IEA: Oil Surplus Expected in 2025 Due to Weak Demand

China's economic slowdown is recognized as a significant factor influencing global oil demand, which the IEA forecasts will rise by only 990,000 bpd in 2025. Meanwhile, non-Opec+ countries are expected to boost their oil supply by 1.5million bpd, exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand. This surplus poses challenges for Opec+ as it seeks to regulate production levels, particularly since the group has recently postponed plans to relax output cuts in response to falling prices.

For 2024, the IEA has slightly revised its demand growth forecast upward to 920,000 bpd, fueled by increased gasoil consumption. Nevertheless, overall growth remains lackluster due to persistent global economic uncertainties and fluctuating expectations regarding China's demand and the transition to cleaner energy alternatives. While Opec anticipates stronger demand growth than the IEA's estimates, the latter's projections suggest that Chinese demand growth will experience a notable decline compared to previous years.

‍